Census Data

Background:

On February 8, Statistics Canada published the results of the 2016 Census for population and dwellings. 

For Census information, see Statistics Canada 2016 Census Profiles.

Comparison to 2011 Census Population and Dwellings:

Table 1 below shows the Census population and dwelling counts of the local municipalities in Wellington County in 2011 and 2016.

All of the municipalities in Wellington County experienced residential growth between 2011 and 2016. The rate of household growth is faster than the rate of population growth which we believe is a sign of a trend towards smaller household sizes that has been happening for some time. 

Comparison to 2016 Estimates used in the OPA 99 Growth Forecast:

The province does not use the published Census population in forecasting and allocating growth under the Growth Plan. They use an adjusted population number which the County also uses in its forecasts. 

We refer to the Population that Statistics Canada recently released (and shown in Table 1) as the Published Census Population. The Published Census Population figures do not include the net Census undercount. Net Census undercount is an estimate of the difference between the number of people who were not counted, and the number of people who were over-counted in the Census. When we add the net Census Undercount to the Published Census Population, the result is the Census Adjusted Population. The estimated undercount in the 2011 Census was 4.1 % and this was applied in developing the Growth Plan and County OPA 99 forecasts.

The growth forecast for the County and local municipalities that Council adopted as part of OPA 99 included population and household estimates for 2016. The 2016 estimates were based in part on our in-house tracking system that Watson Associates designed for us. We used local building permits to estimate the 2016 occupied dwellings and the Adjusted Census Population. Unlike Population, the Dwelling information does not require undercount adjustments so we find it to be a more useful basis for comparisons. 

Table 2 below compares the 2016 Census (with population adjusted by adding the net Census undercount of 4.1%) and the County forecast estimates for 2016.

 

 The overall County estimates are within about 1% of the adjusted Census figures.